Pound crashed below support 2

UK retail sales came out worse than expected and British Pound fell against US dollar below yesterday low. There was some bearish momentum before the release came out and it strengthened after the data was published. Now, did that change market sentiment? I don’t think so, The fact that gbp/usd went below support 2 level (see the chart below) does not mean Pound strength has been exhausted. No! On the contrary, current levels could be a good point to buy the currency and keep it till it goes above 1.5700 level and beyond. I am waiting for some signs of turnaround to enter a long position. 

Of course, you can never be sure whether accumulation or distribution is taking place when the pair goes below or above some key level. That’s why patient waiting is the key. I would want some 90-120 minutes to pass to be convinced of what is happening. If price just keeps on falling I would not buy, but if I see it stop from falling and jumping up and down in the area of 20 pips I would consider entering a long position. It might happen around US session or some half an hour before it begins. 

British Pound went below support

UK Retail Sales Could Push Pound Beyond 1.5700

1,5700 level is still not taken in gbp/usd, but this can happen today. We have important fundamental news release coming out at 08:30 GMT. Better than expected data will probably be able to push the price beyond this level. Worse than expected numbers will most likely keep price below it or even push price below yesterday low. As no other important news is coming from US today, retail sales will be the key. 

Well, we have existing home sales, leading indicators and Philadelphia Fed all coming at 14:00 GMT, but those will hardly have any impact on the market. There are some fundamental events on Friday, but those will also have minor influence for exchange rates:

US: Market Manufacturing at: 13:45

UK: Central Government NCR, PSNB ex Banking Groups, Public Finances and Public Sector Net Borrowing all coming at: 08:30 GMT. 

By looking at price action looks like Pound is bottoming intra-day versus US dollar, but I would prefer waiting for the news to come out instead of entering any positions now. Of course, if I see a clear W on 15 or 30 minute chart I will enter half a position with a small stop loss below 1.5650. On the other hand, we may expect a real swing upwards with a potential of some 200-300 pips. So, let’s see what happens today. 

Support and resistance levels in Pound versus US dollar