Oil Jumping Between Support and Resistance

Oil rally is clearly stalling. 49 level seems to be solid resistance. You can see on the chart below how nicely 200 ema stopped the advance of the commodity twice. Another thing are those bearish pins clearly seen on 8 hour chart. This indicates increasing bearish pressure and a move downwards can materialize any time now. On the other hand, if you look at 4 hour chart you can see that price is supported by 200 sma and ema there.

Support comes at 43.20-43.00 (US oil) area where you can spot a bullish pin. So, we can state that price is trapped between support and resistance and this causes short term range between 49 and 43 levels to continue for some time. Any attempt to come back to 48 is a sell to me. This week should see a narrowing range in the security which would lead to a breakout. I tend to think it will be downwards as longer term trend is still south. 

Intra day support is at 46.50, followed by 47.00. I am waiting for a false break up and then a bearish candle formation to go short. No intentions of buying the commodity at this point. 

eurusd Trapped Between Support and Resistance

The most popular Forex pair eur/usd is currently trapped by intra day support and resistance levels. The pair has been moving down in waves for around two weeks. It is being supported by 200 sma and ema on 4 hour chart (acts as support) and is trapped by 200 sma and ema on hourly chart. This situation won’t last long and price will eventually explode through one of the technical levels up or down. Bearish picture is favored as price rallied to resistance of 1.1230 today and formed a reversal candle (bearish pin) on the hourly chart. 

Price sort of holds above 1.1175 level, which was resistance yesterday and may act as support today. You may remember that price broke the level upwards today after a bullish triangle pattern on 1 hour and 15 minutes formed. However, the breakout occurred during Asian session and these kind of breakouts do not usually last for a long time. If the above mentioned support is broken, next area comes at 1.1100-1.1080. That should hold at least for today, but not sure if it is still there by the end of the week. Euro is also falling against British Pound, so the pressure for eur/usd to go downwards increases dramatically. 

Gold Reverses at Resistance

On the 20^th of July Gold found its’ bottom after falling sharply for around a month. You can see that from that moment on the commodity has been going up in waves by forming bases and then rising further forming another base. There have actually been three levels of rise. Resistance of the first level was at 1110, resistance of the second base at: 1127 and finally the security reversed at 1170 forming two peaks. The first peak formed railroad track pattern (bullish candle up and then the next one down engulfing the bullish candle). The second peak represents a failed attempt of breakout of previous high. Gold managed to break above the first high by around 1.5 dollar per ounce before collapsing to the first level of support at 1145. 

Railroad tracks and a bearish pin on 4 hour chart at resistance indicate that short term bullish trend is over and now gold price will head lower. Looking forward to next week we may state that resistance is now at 1145, where previous support was (according to rules of classical technical analysis). Support can be seen at 1125, 1120 and 1110 levels. I see 1110 as the strongest one and it will probably hold for next week. However, attempts to go above 1145 will probably fail and if one sees a bearish candle formation at that level, it will be a good signal to go short. 

Momentum: Bearish

Intermediate trend: Neutral