2 Bearish Pins in Oil on 4 Hour Chart

Strong rally in oil seems to have exhausted its initial momentum as price is stalling at 49 level. This is confirmed by price action on 4 hour chart. On the 31^st of August the first bearish pin candle pattern formed indicating increase of bearish pressure and strong selling (might be profit taking of the longs too) and the second bearish pin formed on the 1^st of September (both around 49 level). We do not want to jump to fast conclusions, but we may have a top in the commodity and a resumption of a downtrend any time now. Selling rallies becomes the best option for trading again.

 

Our bearish bias is also confirmed by 8 hour chart where price hit 200 ema and retraced. Current support is at 44 level and we expect price to stay between 49 and 44 levels for some time. Key support is now around 39-38 levels. 43-42 levels are less important support levels, but they should hold price collapse for the time being. They coincide with 200 sma and ema on 1 and 2 hour charts.  

Intra-day resistance is at 45.50 followed by 46.00 and finally 47.00. Momentum seems to have changed and shorts are favored now over longs.  

Gold Reverses at Resistance

On the 20^th of July Gold found its’ bottom after falling sharply for around a month. You can see that from that moment on the commodity has been going up in waves by forming bases and then rising further forming another base. There have actually been three levels of rise. Resistance of the first level was at 1110, resistance of the second base at: 1127 and finally the security reversed at 1170 forming two peaks. The first peak formed railroad track pattern (bullish candle up and then the next one down engulfing the bullish candle). The second peak represents a failed attempt of breakout of previous high. Gold managed to break above the first high by around 1.5 dollar per ounce before collapsing to the first level of support at 1145. 

Railroad tracks and a bearish pin on 4 hour chart at resistance indicate that short term bullish trend is over and now gold price will head lower. Looking forward to next week we may state that resistance is now at 1145, where previous support was (according to rules of classical technical analysis). Support can be seen at 1125, 1120 and 1110 levels. I see 1110 as the strongest one and it will probably hold for next week. However, attempts to go above 1145 will probably fail and if one sees a bearish candle formation at that level, it will be a good signal to go short. 

Momentum: Bearish

Intermediate trend: Neutral

Morning star on eurusd 1 hour chart

After a break of yesterday’s low and some consolidation eur/usd formed a morning star pattern and is rising now. I may remind you that it is a bullish candle pattern formation that indicates bullish pressure and may serve as a signal to go long. 

The pattern should be taken even more seriously as it formed right on 200 ema on 1 hour. You see, we wait for more points of confluence in order to take a signal. Just the mere fact that it is on 200 ema or sma is not enough to go long or short. You need more factors and the second one is morning start candle pattern. 

The first level of resistance is even number of 1.1100 that coincides with 200 sma on 15 minute chart. The next much stronger resistance level is yesterday’s high: 1.1125 level. 

On the other hand we should remember that the pair has been going down since last Thursday when it formed a peak at 1.1213 level. 

We should also remember that long term trend has been down for a year now. Intermediate trend is neutral and short term trend is down. Yet day traders can trade both directions when key points of intra day support or resistance are reached. 

Morning Star candle pattern on 1 hour chart in eur/usd