In my previous post on oil I wrote about bearish triangle that could be seen on 1, 2 and 4 hour charts. On the one hand it failed to materialize when price rallied through upper trend line of 45.50-46.00 (I took a small loss on that one). On the other hand, that does not negate the fact that the commodity is still in a downtrend and may resume its long term direction any time. You may look at 8 hour chart below and you will see that for the third time price rallied to 200 ema on 8 hour chart and each time a bearish pin candle pattern formed causing price to stall and then to fall.
The same thing happened today. You can see an indecision candle first, and then two bearish candles, the second one being the signal for a short trade and if you had taken it (I surely did) you would have made nice cash by now. I entered my short at 46.49 with a stop loss above the high of the current move (47.72) and I took my profit at 45.20. Risk reward ratio on that was 1:1, but as the pattern was really strongly bearish and easily took the trade without thinking much about it.
Support remains as it was at 43.50-43.00 area. I do expect it to be broken soon and price to reach another new low for the year. In my opinion oil is headed towards 30 and then possibly to 20. I play it only from the short side for the time being.
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