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Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Oil Hit Upper Trend Line

I mentioned in my earlier post that a possible bearish triangle was in formation in oil. Looks like my predictions are confirmed as today price hit upper trend line of the triangle and is reversing to the downside at the time of writing. As you may see from the chart below we have pressure building up for the commodity to go down. Any time it rallies up, it faces resistance earlier than previous time. So, the first point was 49.30, followed by 48.40, then 46.40, later 46.00 and now 45.60. Let me remind you that breakout traders would sell a break of key support that currently is 43.50-43.00 area. 

If breakout materializes we may see the security to go down as low as 37.50 (the low of August 24). I do have a small short position from 43.16 with a stop loss above today’s high. Let’s remember that the longer term trend is still down and a resumption of the direction may start any time now. FOMC rate decision tomorrow can surely be a good trigger for the continuation of the downtrend. Anyway, any bearish candle on the hourly chart at resistance could be a good point for entering a short position. Let’s wait and see what happens to the commodity. 

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