Wednesday, September 2, 2015

2 Bearish Pins in Oil on 4 Hour Chart

Strong rally in oil seems to have exhausted its initial momentum as price is stalling at 49 level. This is confirmed by price action on 4 hour chart. On the 31st of August the first bearish pin candle pattern formed indicating increase of bearish pressure and strong selling (might be profit taking of the longs too) and the second bearish pin formed on the 1st of September (both around 49 level). We do not want to jump to fast conclusions, but we may have a top in the commodity and a resumption of a downtrend any time now. Selling rallies becomes the best option for trading again.

Our bearish bias is also confirmed by 8 hour chart where price hit 200 ema and retraced. Current support is at 44 level and we expect price to stay between 49 and 44 levels for some time. Key support is now around 39-38 levels. 43-42 levels are less important support levels, but they should hold price collapse for the time being. They coincide with 200 sma and ema on 1 and 2 hour charts.  

Intra-day resistance is at 45.50 followed by 46.00 and finally 47.00. Momentum seems to have changed and shorts are favored now over longs.  

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