As has been said earlier oil was expected to stay in a range for some time. There were obvious signs of a failed rally upwards that ended with the commodity reaching 49 level. It has been two weeks of ranging now. From technical point of view you can see a bearish triangle in development with the support being at 43.50 level and resistance with descending trend line at 46.00-46.50 area. There is a possibility of a false break above current resistance and a rally to 47.00-47.50 area, but in my opinion, price will likely stall at 46.50.
We should also remember that narrowing range is always followed by sharp increase of volatility and breakouts and prolonged moves. That’s precisely what I expect from the commodity. Sometime in the next couple of weeks the security should break through 43.50-43.00 level. A less likely scenario would be the commodity running above 46 level to 49 resistance and then going beyond that to 54-55 resistance.
Anyway, if we have a rally towards 46.00-46.50 I would wait for some bearish signs (railroad tracks, bearish pin, M pattern and etc.) at the top to go short. At the moment I have no intentions of buying the security.
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