Pound is Still Falling against US dollar

Despite the fact that gbp/usd move down got slower, it is still going south. It seemed that there was going to be a reversal today. Why? If you look at 15 minute chart you can clearly see that Monday low did not exceed Friday low. It actually resembled a double bottom pattern. However, during European session today the lows was taken out and new low was made. Yesterday lowest point was at 1.5340 while Friday low stood at 1.5335. Now American session is in full swing and the lowest level today is 1.5304. The fall may continue further.

The best play for such market is, of course, selling rallies. Such an opportunity presented itself right on the London open. Three arrows on the chart indicate a reversal, which shows that counter trend rally is over and price is about to move down again. It is also obvious that 200 ema acted perfectly as a resistance level on 15 minute chart. Just look at those candle pins to see for yourself. 

Neither data from UK, nor from US could stop cable from collapsing. Well, more important news is coming at 14:00 GMT when ISM Manufacturing from US is released. Trade only from the short side till you definitely see a trend change.

Euro Ends the Week on Bullish Tone

Euro continued moving up verses US dollar on Friday. You probably remember that a reversal upwards started on Wednesday after five days of moving down. Thursday saw eur/usd rallying up dramatically and on the last day of the week the move accelerated even more. 

It is pretty interesting that the pair continued going upwards even during Asian session and crashed on London open. However, the correction downwards was very limited and within an hour and a half the pair started going up again. Because the short term trend has been up for a few days we were only looking for opportunities to go long. It presented itself when 09:30 GMT 15 minute candle closed. 

Price failed to take the low of 1.1240 (the low that formed at 08:21 GMT) and the uptrend resumed itself. Depending on your broker spreads you could buy the pair at around 1.1262 with a stop loss below the low of European session (1.1240) or below the low of Asian session and low of the day at 1.1228. The first level carrier less risk (22 pips) and the second one (34 pips). Both were affordable as price rose around 150 pips for the day. You could grab at least half of it. 

Buy set up for eur/usd

Intra-day bearish pattern in gbpusd

British Pound shows bullish momentum versus US dollar and the magical number of 1.5700 that has had for around ten times has to be broken any time now. However, if you look at 15 minute chart and the bearish formation that has formed around the above mentioned level shows that there still might be  a dip below Asian session lows before real buying pressure comes back. There is some fundamental data that might impact exchange rate of gbp/usd. We have – Markit Mfg PMI (AUG P) coming at: 13:45 GMT (Expected: 53.8, Prev: 53.8)

In fact, as I am writing the post Asian session low has been broken. We need to wait for signs of a reversal in order to go long (which is what I expect). Do not forget that momentum is still bullish for the week. Lots of breakout traders have been beaten trying to buy a break above 1.5700. At one point they will succeed, but they will have lost too much money on their attempt. Better wait for a dip and buy at support. At least this type of strategy works for me!

Intra-day reversal pattern on gbp/usd 15 minute

Current level of gbp/usd (Asian session low broken)

Price action of eurusd today

I want to look through eur/usd price action today. If you remember the pair was in a bearish mode since last Wednesday and turned around yesterday. It ran up and closed above Tuesday’s high. It means, that today from day trading perspective we had to look for a bullish set up to go long or simply to wait for a dip and a bullish price action afterwards to take a long position. 

Could there be a better option than to look for a dip below Asian session low and a reversal there? I don’t think so! That’s precisely what happened today.  After London open price slipped below Asian session low and at 07:51 GMT price reach its’ low of the day. It then formed a bullish W pattern and rallied upwards. You should have gone long at the close of 08:15 GMT 15 minute candle (at around 1.1125) with a stop loss below the low of the day at 1.1105 and exited either before US session started at 1.1180 level or even number of 1.1200, or you could keep your position still open for a further upward swing that might take you to 1.1400 level by the end of the week (tomorrow). Well, that’s not for sure, but likely. 

See you with the updates on the market price action tomorrow. 

Price action of eur/usd on 15 minute chart

Oil runs to 41.50 and falls

Black gold, aka oil is in one of the strongest downtrends of all time. The collapse started at the end of last June and it is still continuing. Some say it may go down as low as 30 $ per barrel, others even claim that it will be 20 $ by the end of the year. A lot of oil producing and exporting countries are positioning themselves for lower income and planning their budgets accordingly. 

What do traders do? Well, they trade in the direction of the prevailing trend. Despite the fact, oil is not at the best spot where you can take a long term short, from position of a short term trader I can say that you can simply wait for a rally and then place a short. Such a situation happened yesterday when price rallied above previous day’s high, formed a reversal structure and collapse. 

A similar situation is happening now. Price rallies above Asian session high during US session, formed a peak, tried to break it one time and reversed by forming a classical reversal pattern M. 

A short simply had to be placed when 13:45 (GMT) 15 minute candle closed. A stop has to be around 41.55 (just above today’s high). Let’s see how this short plays out. 

Reversal pattern in US oil