200 sma acts as support in Pound US dollar pair

200 sma on the hourly chart of gbp/usd again acts as support. You can clearly see from example below that since the 18^th of August, price turned around and went up after it had hit the indicator. This indicates that there is bullish bias in the pair and buying pressure may resume the fourth time too. Of course, this time price is below our key level of 1.5700 and there is no guarantee that the uptrend in cable will continue, but if I see any signs of reversal I will surely buy Pound. 

On the other hand, the top on the pair may have been reached and it will head to 1.5400 or even to 1.5200 area. Key fundamental data that might impact price direction is to be released at 12:30 GMT and that will be US retail sales. A more positive than expected number can sink British Pound. On the other hand, worse than expected data will put pressure on US dollar and it will fall. I am slightly bullish at this point, but that can change any time. Anyway, let’s wait for US session to see what number we get with US retail sales. 

200 sma on hourly acts as support

Price below key 1.5700 in gbpusd again

The awaited break of 1.5700 in gbp/usd happened, but it turned to be false again, at least at the time of writing and price is again below the level. As you may see from the chart price broke above yesterday’s high and then reversed falling back below key level. That is pretty usual price action in currency market. That also confirms the idea how much manipulated it is. You may not believe it, but how can you explain this kind of price action of breakouts and then reversals the next day. That’s banksters playing with traders’ money.

Anyway, if you chose to be in the game you have to know how to play it. Be sure to watch price action which happens right after a breakout occurs. False breaks are “smart money” tricks to get your money out of your pocket into their pockets. 

We have to continue watching price action to see what happens next. Will there be a continuation of a downtrend or price will rally upwards tomorrow? Anything can happen. Support comes at: 1.5680, 1.5650 and 1.5630. I tend to think a reversal may happen around 1.5650, but that will become clearer after Asian session tomorrow as we will head into European session. 

See you tomorrow with the updates. 

Below key level again

Pound closes below 1.5700 against US dollar

For a number of weeks gbp/usd fails to overcome 1.5700 level. I don’t see it as bearish or bullish; just state the fact how important the number is. There has to be a break at some point: up or down. On the other hand, 1.5688 is pretty close. That’s what the close was in the pair (at least on my charts). By looking at the 4 hour chart below you can see that from the 7^th of August cable was clearly making higher highs and higher lows against the greenback. It implies that Pound was in accumulation process and US dollar in distribution. This may not mean the tendency will continue, but it is likely.

Forex news that might impact exchange rate of the pair:

Tuesday: 14:00 GMT US Consumer Confidence

Wednesday: 12:30 GMT US Durable Goods Orders

Thursday: 12:30 GMT US Gross Domestic Product

Friday: 08:30 GMT GBP Gross Domestic Product

In my opinion the pair may broke or reverse from the key level any time at the start of the week without waiting for the above mentioned economic releases. Both FED minutes and BOE interest rates have been announced, so we may expect technical moves at any time next week. 

See with more updates on this Monday.

Higher highs and lows in gbp/usd

Intra-day bearish pattern in gbpusd

British Pound shows bullish momentum versus US dollar and the magical number of 1.5700 that has had for around ten times has to be broken any time now. However, if you look at 15 minute chart and the bearish formation that has formed around the above mentioned level shows that there still might be  a dip below Asian session lows before real buying pressure comes back. There is some fundamental data that might impact exchange rate of gbp/usd. We have – Markit Mfg PMI (AUG P) coming at: 13:45 GMT (Expected: 53.8, Prev: 53.8)

In fact, as I am writing the post Asian session low has been broken. We need to wait for signs of a reversal in order to go long (which is what I expect). Do not forget that momentum is still bullish for the week. Lots of breakout traders have been beaten trying to buy a break above 1.5700. At one point they will succeed, but they will have lost too much money on their attempt. Better wait for a dip and buy at support. At least this type of strategy works for me!

Intra-day reversal pattern on gbp/usd 15 minute

Current level of gbp/usd (Asian session low broken)

Pound crashed below support 2

UK retail sales came out worse than expected and British Pound fell against US dollar below yesterday low. There was some bearish momentum before the release came out and it strengthened after the data was published. Now, did that change market sentiment? I don’t think so, The fact that gbp/usd went below support 2 level (see the chart below) does not mean Pound strength has been exhausted. No! On the contrary, current levels could be a good point to buy the currency and keep it till it goes above 1.5700 level and beyond. I am waiting for some signs of turnaround to enter a long position. 

Of course, you can never be sure whether accumulation or distribution is taking place when the pair goes below or above some key level. That’s why patient waiting is the key. I would want some 90-120 minutes to pass to be convinced of what is happening. If price just keeps on falling I would not buy, but if I see it stop from falling and jumping up and down in the area of 20 pips I would consider entering a long position. It might happen around US session or some half an hour before it begins. 

British Pound went below support