Monday, August 17, 2015

Euro falls against US dollar

Euro crashed against US dollar when London markets opened. The pair dipped below Thursday’s low (1.1080 level) and is now consolidating. We do expect a bounce at this point and possible move back to 1.1100 level before US session begins. 1.1080 level is now resistance (previous support becomes resistance). 1.1062 (current low) should act as support. 

Euro bulls should be looking for a reversal pattern near support to confirm a false breakout downwards and a possible return to 1.1140 level. With no major news from Europe or US we may assume that price will remain range bound and fluctuate between 1.1050-1.1130 levels. 

After high was reached on Thursday we may also assume that there is a slight bearish bias, but that has to be confirmed by moving further below 1.1050 level. 

US CPI (Consumer Price Index) that is to be released on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT should give more directional bias for eur/usd pair. Minutes from FOMC the same day at 18:00 GMT could make even bigger waves in Euro/Dollar exchange rate. Generally speaking, prices are range bound while the main trend still remains downwards. 1.1500 level has to be broken decisively in order for the sentiment to change. 

eur/usd 30 minute chart (possible false breakout below Thursday lows)

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