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Thursday, August 27, 2015

Oil is approaching resistance



Oil (US) has been consolidating and correcting. It is currently running to important intra-day resistance level of 40.50. It coincides with 200 sma on hourly chart and also the high of August 24. There might be a false breakout of the area (very likely) and a reversal back to 38.50 or even the low of the year 37.75. 

As the commodity is in a clear downtrend only short positions should be opened. There are much higher chances to make profitable trades trading in the direction of prevailing move than trying to capture counter trend moves. 

Of course, the lower the security drops the sharper rallies upwards it will produce. I will only consider it buying after I see it fail to make new lows for a prolonged period of time. This would be a sign that the downtrend might be over and the commodity is being accumulated. For the time being such signs are not there and only sell positions should be considered. 

Next levels of resistance if the above mentioned is broken: 41.50, 42.00 and 42.50.
Key fundamental data today is: US Gross Domestic Product and US Core Personal Consumption both to be released at: 12:30 GMT. 

US Oil 1 hour chart

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